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Black Swan Me | Proof of the Unified Behavior Model

Behavior Change, Behavioral Literacy Project, Habit Alignment, habits, P.A.R.R. Methodology, Scientific Method, Unified Behavior Model / August 8, 2025 by equilibriument

How the Unified Behavior Model™ was uncovered rather than discovered.

On July 8th, in what can only be described as an act of reckless clarity, we published a white paper (grab it here →) Unified Behavioral Model™ — Read more… listen now.

“Science may be described as the art of systematic oversimplification.” ― Karl Popper


Behavioral science—despite vast contributions—suffers from two core flaws: absence of a unified model and inaccessibility. The Unified Behavior Model (UBM) addresses both by elementalizing behavior into four components: Cognition (Stories), Behavior (Habits/Skills), Emotion (Feelings), and Environment (including the body). This yields a falsifiable, practical framework.

So, what makes UBM so unique — so different from prevalent behavioral models?

First, let’s clear up a common misconception:

UBM — specifically the Behavior Echo-System (BES) — is a model of behavior, not a model of a person.

People often see the graphic and assume it represents themselves, or a diagram of the human body. It doesn’t.

As Dr. Popper’s statement above suggests, UBM articulates how behavior is influenced in the moment and shaped over time — within its system.

Now, here’s its B.I.G. claim:

UBM is falsifiable.

In science, that’s the gold standard. (Period.)

If a theory can’t be tested or broken, it’s just storytelling. Worse yet, Karl Popper would say it’s non-science.

What’s Popper’s core claim?

Science and non-science are divided by a single demarcation: Falsifiability.

UBM asks — check that, insists — “Go for it… Please try to break me.”

Apparently, no other behavior model — certainly not a unified one — has ever done that.

Kind of interesting…Maybe just a bit?

Worth mentioning, at least?

Or dedicating, I don’t know… twenty-plus years to uncovering?

UBM/BES Comparison Table & Major Prevalent Models as provided by DeepSeek.

According to Dr. Karl Popper — and as noted in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, “Karl Popper is generally regarded as one of the greatest philosophers of science of the twentieth century” — if a theory can’t be tested (or broken), it’s just storytelling. Worse, he’d call it “non-science.”

Just to be clear: that’s Dr. Popper, philosopher and trained psychologist, who introduced the idea of falsifiability (and gave us that delightful bit with the Black Swan).

So yeah — if you can’t at least attempt to break it, he says, it doesn’t count.

UBM is so confident in its falsifiability that it’s offering a $1,000 reward to the first person to prove there’s a missing fifth element — one that isn’t reducible or emergent. (See below and bottom for official entry details.)

So far: nearly 500 downloads and…

Nada. Zip. Zilch. NOTHING.

Even the world’s top AIs — ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek — took their shots.

They’ve all struck out.

Attempts include: Time (environmental), Consciousness (emergent from the system), Willpower (embodied environment), Self-Organization (embodied environment — note the “self” in self-organization).

The list goes on, and it’s kind of funny.

Google’s Gemini, for example, offered a “someday” quantum property we don’t even know of yet.

Seriously.

Just to be clear: if we don’t know of it yet, and we can’t test it — it’s not a valid fifth element.

DeepSeek’s parting words? Also comical…

“UBM 1. DS 0… Game respects game.”

And, here’s Gemini’s best response after half dozen attempts…

Gemini ☝️ tries desperately to break the Unified Behavior Model and fails.

The difficulty in falsification, as intended by the model’s design, is a powerful indicator of its conceptual strength and it’s potential to serve as a TRULY UNIFYING FRAMEWORK FOR BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE. ~Gemini 8/4/2025

CONCEPTUAL STRENGTH.

Some have argued, “Well, UBM is overly simplified.”

Really?

Then why hasn’t anyone discovered it before — or more accurately, uncovered it and brought it to light?

Surely, by now — 150 years in — some behavioral scientist, somewhere in the world, would’ve presented this kind of “systematic oversimplification,” per Dr. Popper, right?

Let’s go over that one more time:

“Science may be described as the art of systematic oversimplification.” ― Karl Popper

This is precisely Dr. P’s point: science progresses by oversimplifying — systematically.

Voila: UBM. 👇 Systematic oversimplification..

“Great theories have a simple pictorial representation.”
— Michio Kaku

The Behavior Echo-System™ (BES): the systematic simplification of behavior.

Which makes it — by definition — the elemental science of behavior.

Allegedly.

Until — and unless — you produce the Black Swan of course.

(Looking at you top psych departments — according to U.S. News & World Report, 2025): @StanfordPsych, @HarvardPsych, @UCBPsychology, @UCLPALS, @Psych_at_Yale, @UMichPsych, @UCLA_Psych, @UCSDPsych, @OxfordPsych, @PrincetonPsych.

Please, with all due respect, step right up and break UBM.. 👊 🤙 🙏

Behaviorally speaking, of course, the Behavior Echo-System™ (BES) operates through dynamic feedback loops (systems theory/science) made up of JUST FOUR ELEMENTAL, interdependent components:

Environment
Your surroundings and your body.

Behaviors, Habits, Skills
What you do — or don’t do — in the moment and over time.

Stories / Thinking
The meaning-making machine, composed of logic and illogic. (see the Art of Abstract Thought, prior episode)

Emotions & Feelings
Variable, personal salience signals that conduct energy and influence.

Together, these form the essential, irremovable, irreducible core four elements that shape behavior — in the moment and over time. (See the middle concentric circle.)

Think something’s missing?
Believe there’s a fifth, irreducible element?

We have a challenge for you. 👇

Keep on trackin’ ✅

~mg

This originally appeared at Habits 2 Goals. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a FREE or paid subscriber.

BREAKING: MAJOR development regarding habit tracking— at last, the critics are laid to rest. Whether you hate tracking or love it — the science is undeniable. Discover all the details in Section 7.0 of the Unified Behavior Model™ white paper: https://zenodo.org/records/15844153

📄 Get started with the scientifically proven and FREE habit tracking template today 👉 : thehabitfactor.com/templates

The Trilogy: WARNING! Do NOT read these books

EVERYTHING: The stories you tell yourself heavily influence only ‘everything.’

The Habit Factor®: Habit alignment, momentum and daily wins!

The Pressure Paradox™: Productivity, Performance & Peace of Mind.

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BREAKING: Unified Behavior Model Published.

What exactly is the behavioral science community doing if not immediately testing the first falsifiable unified model in 150 years?…